Semiconductor Tariff Phase 2: Landed-Cost Checklist

The short version

If you buy chips, the tariff story you heard in January is not the tariff story that will set your Q4 costs. On January 14, 2026, a Section 232 proclamation imposed a 25% duty on imported semiconductors — but it covered a deliberately narrow slice: advanced logic chips inside two precise performance windows, roughly the NVIDIA H200 / AMD MI325X class, with broad end-use exemptions on top. For most buyers of MCUs, power devices, analog parts, and passives, that 25% taxed almost nothing. The measure was explicitly a two-phase instrument. Phase 2 — expected to expand coverage to memory, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, analog and mixed-signal chips, and finished goods containing them — had not taken effect as of October 1, 2026; no Phase 2 notice appears in the Federal Register. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC in a September 2 interview that broader tariffs were coming, with an expected September–October window — no official Commerce statement has been located. This checklist tells you what to do now, while the bill is still being written. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax, or customs advice.

Stop treating "the semiconductor tariff" as one number

There is no single semiconductor tariff. There is a stack, and your exposure depends on which layers touch your BOM:

• Section 232 Phase 1 (25%): narrow advanced-computing chips only, filed under HTSUS 9903.79.01, effective January 15, 2026. Most commodity chips never trigger it. (White House proclamation, 2026-01-14)
• Section 301 on Chinese-origin semiconductors: a separate, real duty — the rate rose to 50% effective January 1, 2025 (USTR) — that stacks on top of everything else. A separate December 2024 Section 301 investigation resulted in a 0% rate effective December 29, 2025, with reconsideration set for June 23, 2027 — 301 exposure moves on its own track.
• Section 122 global surcharge (expired — do not model as active): a temporary 10% surcharge imposed February 24, 2026 after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based tariffs; expired by statute on July 24, 2026, and held unlawful by the Court of International Trade on May 7, 2026 (appeal pending). Preserve entry records from the February–July window in case refund litigation resolves in importers' favor.
• Polysilicon (15%): a separate August 6, 2026 Section 232 action on polysilicon and derivatives, with minimum import prices effective December 4, 2026 — relevant if your supply chain runs through solar-adjacent material flows. (White House Proclamation 11052)
• Section 232 Phase 2: pending as of October 1, 2026. Expected to widen the 232 umbrella far beyond advanced logic.
• The practical consequence of stacking: a single chip can face multiple layers at once. Analysts estimate a Chinese-origin AI accelerator could face a combined effective duty of roughly 60–90% once layers stack (ainvest). That number is not your number — your number comes from your SKUs, your origins, and your classifications.

Map every SKU to its HTS classification now

Before Phase 2 lands, audit your semiconductor supply chain line by line:

• List every SKU that contains a logic integrated circuit — not just the chips you buy directly, but the chips inside the modules, boards, and finished goods you import.
• Map each against the current Phase 1 technical thresholds (TPP and DRAM bandwidth windows). Determine which entries currently qualify for an exemption and which would be exposed if coverage broadens to HTSUS 8541, 8542, and 8486.
• Record the country of origin for each line. Origin determines whether Section 301 stacks — and it is the field most buyers get wrong, because "assembled in" is not the same as "origin" under customs rules.
• This mapping is the single highest-leverage hour you can spend. Without it, every later decision — pricing, exemptions, RFQ terms — is guesswork.

Make your exemption paperwork audit-proof

Phase 1's exemption framework is genuinely generous — seven end-use doors out of the 25%: U.S. data-center use (9903.79.03), repairs, R&D, startups, consumer applications, civil industrial use, and the public sector. But exemptions are not self-executing:

• Exemptions require affirmative documentation at the time of entry. You cannot claim an exemption code and assemble the paperwork later.
• Customs guidance (CBP CSMS #67400472) expects correct HTS sequencing on entry summaries — Chapter 98 first, then Chapter 99 (the 232 duties and exemptions), then other trade remedies, then the primary classification — plus separate duty reporting for each tariff line. Duties across several required HTSUS numbers on one line must not be combined.
• End-use certification must substantiate the claimed basis: purchase orders, installation plans, facility documentation, end-user declarations.
• If you import through a Foreign Trade Zone, covered products must be admitted under privileged foreign status (19 CFR 146.41) — the classification and duty rate lock at admission, and zone status cannot be used to sidestep the duty.
• No duty drawback is permitted on Section 232 semiconductor duties. Pay the 25% and later export the product, and that duty is gone.
• Stress-test question for every exemption you currently claim: could it survive a CBP Form 28 request for information? If the answer is "probably not," fix it now — before Phase 2 multiplies the number of lines under review. A licensed customs broker should review the file, not just your forwarder.

Model the Phase 2 cost scenario before it becomes the invoice

Run the numbers under the assumption that broader coverage arrives, then build them into Q4 pricing and negotiations:

• Model duty at a 25% rate across all semiconductor imports in your BOM (HTSUS 8541, 8542, 8486) as a stress case — not as a prediction of the final rate, which has not been set as of October 1, 2026.
• Watch the offset-program design. The January proclamation contemplates a tariff-offset program rewarding companies that invest in U.S. fab capacity. The closest existing template is the CHIPS Act's Section 48D investment tax credit — now 35% for qualified property placed in service after December 31, 2025 (raised from 25% by the Working Families Tax Cuts Act of 2025, per current IRS guidance). The offset program's actual shape is still pending; it decides who gets relief and who pays full freight.
• Note the calendar: the proclamation ties Phase 2's timing to the conclusion of trade negotiations, so the real compliance picture could still arrive in Q4 — your busiest buying season. Build the model now, not the week the Federal Register notice drops.
• Revisit FTZ admissions now. An improperly admitted product swept into Phase 2 coverage later creates retroactive liability — verify privileged foreign status admissions are airtight.
• The point of the model is not precision; it is negotiation leverage. A buyer who walks into Q4 with a modeled cost range negotiates from data. A buyer without one negotiates from surprise.

Write the RFQ so landed cost is comparable

When duties are moving, the cheapest unit price is often the most expensive landed cost. Make every quote answer the same questions:

• Ask for duties broken out separately. Require each supplier to state the HTS classification they are declaring, the country of origin, and the duty layers included in the quote — as line items, not buried in the unit price.
• Pin down who bears tariff risk. State the Incoterm explicitly. Under DDP the seller absorbs duty changes; under DAP/EXW they land on you. If a quote does not name the term, it has not answered the tariff question.
• Ask what happens if Phase 2 lands mid-order. A one-line clause — price validity period, and who absorbs a duty change between PO and delivery — prevents the most common Q4 dispute in the industry.
• Request the origin paper trail. Ask suppliers to confirm origin determination methodology for multi-country value chains, so a Section 301 surprise does not arrive with the invoice.
• Send the shortlisted parts on one RFQ with your target delivery window, the HTS classifications you have mapped, and the Incoterm you want quoted — so every supplier prices the same landed-cost assumptions, and the comparison is honest.

Frequently asked questions

Quick answers to the questions buyers ask most about the semiconductor tariff stack.

• Q: Is Phase 2 already in effect? A: No — as of October 1, 2026, Phase 2 had not taken effect; no Phase 2 notice appears in the Federal Register. The January proclamation built Phase 2 in as a second stage to follow the conclusion of trade negotiations, and directed Commerce to brief the President on the data-center semiconductor market by July 1 (no public record of that briefing exists). Treat everything about Phase 2's rate and scope as pending until a Federal Register notice says otherwise.
• Q: Does the current 25% tariff apply to the MCUs and power chips I buy? A: Almost certainly not under Phase 1. The 25% applies only to advanced logic chips inside two narrow performance windows (roughly H200/MI325X class) that also fail all seven end-use exemptions. Commodity MCUs, power devices, analog parts, and passives do not meet those thresholds. The reason to act now is Phase 2, which is expected to reach exactly those categories.
• Q: Who actually pays the tariff — me or my supplier? A: The importer of record pays, which in practice means whoever the Incoterm points at. Under DDP the supplier absorbs it; under EXW, FCA, or DAP it lands on you. This is why the RFQ must name the Incoterm and break duties out as line items.
• Q: Can I claim an exemption after the goods have cleared customs? A: No. End-use exemptions under the Section 232 semiconductor measure require affirmative documentation at the time of entry — classification sequencing, separate duty reporting, and end-use certification all happen on the entry summary. There is also no duty drawback on these duties, so a 232 duty paid cannot be recovered on re-export. Get the paperwork right before the goods move, not after.